The EU and 1.5 °C

Arthur Oldeman

The EU presented new emission targets (90% reduction compared to 1990 by 2040 and between 66% and 72% by 2035) on top of the already established 55% by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050. The EU claims to be committed to the 1.5 °C target in the Paris Agreement. However, a calculation based on the remaining carbon budgets shows that, no matter how you achieve those targets, you will use up more than the EU’s fair share for 1.5 °C. Even with the lowest emission pathway, the EU is committing to 1.65 degrees, and that could even rise to 1.8 °C.

A new study by Climate Analytics,¹ among others, shows that 1.5 degrees by the end of this century is possible after a limited overshoot to just under 1.7 degrees around 2040. Viewed very optimistically, the new EU climate targets fit into such a scenario, but that would also mean a vision of negative emissions (e.g. carbon removal), and that is not being presented. It would be to the EU’s credit to be honest about its emission targets, that 1.5 degrees is unachievable, and that the new climate targets will lead to more than 1.5 degrees of warming.

If the EU keeps its emissions high and only reduces them to the target level in the year before a certain target is due, it will emit much more carbon dioxide in total than if it achieves the 2030 target next year and remains at that level in the coming years. The path to the targets can therefore make a significant difference to the final emissions, and thus also to the final warming to which the EU is committing itself. Based on the EU’s fair share (percentage of the world population), this will be at least 1.65 °C and possibly even more than 1.8 °C. In both cases, the EU will achieve its climate targets.

This is a summary of a blog by Arthur Oldeman.

1. World can still rescue 1.5°C, says new analysis mapping the highest-ambition path. Climate Analytics. https://climateanalytics.org/press-releases/world-can-still-rescue-1-5-c-says-new-analysis-mapping-the-highest-ambition-path ↩︎