{"id":3694,"date":"2026-05-13T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/?p=3694"},"modified":"2026-05-11T11:36:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T09:36:57","slug":"factcheck-nine-false-or-misleading-myths-about-north-sea-oil-and-gas-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/en\/2026\/05\/13\/factcheck-nine-false-or-misleading-myths-about-north-sea-oil-and-gas-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Factcheck: Nine false or misleading myths about North Sea oil and gas. #4"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

01\/05\/2026 by Redactie<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are facing surging oil prices and rising costs for fertilisers, food and other commodities. Trump\u2019s reckless actions in Iran are pushing the global economy to the brink of an economic crisis. Many are seizing the opportunity to start drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea. This Carbon Brief paper debunks the myths surrounding drilling in the North Sea.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paper appeared first in Carbon Brief<\/a> on 25 March 2026 and was written by Daisy Dunne, Josh Gabbatiss, Molly Lempriere and Simon Evans. This text has been republished here under a CC license<\/a>. We will publish it in five parts. Read part 1 here<\/a>. (Note: Most of these fact-checks also apply to other countries around the North Sea, such as Germany and the Netherlands.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

MISLEADING: \u2018With new North Sea licences would come thousands of jobs\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Addressing parliament in March, Nigel Farage, the leader of the hard-right, climate-sceptic Reform UK party, claimed that with new North Sea oil and gas licences \u201cwould come thousands of jobs\u201d, according to the Herald<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As noted above, the issuing of new exploration licences would only make a small difference to future production in a basin that is in irreversible decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Official statistics<\/a> show the decline of the basin caused direct jobs in oil and gas production to fall by a third between 2014 and 2023. Indeed, according to the government<\/a>, more than 70,000 jobs have been lost in the last decade alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This decline has occurred despite the previous Conservative government, which was in power from 2010-24, holding six<\/a> new licensing rounds and issuing hundreds of new licences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Norwegian oil-and-gas company Equinor has claimed<\/a> that, if approved, its large oil project, Rosebank, could create up to 1,600 jobs while at the height of its construction phase. (Rosebank has a licence, but has not yet obtained final consent from the government.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysis<\/a> by the North Sea non-profit Uplift<\/a> says that this figure is \u201cinflated\u201d and that the project would only create 255 jobs over its lifetime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As part of its \u201cNorth Sea future plan<\/a>\u201d announced in 2025, the current Labour government has pledged to establish the \u201cNorth Sea jobs service\u201d \u2013 a national employment programme offering support for oil and gas workers seeking new opportunities in clean energy, defence and advanced manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, campaigners<\/a> have warned that the plan does not go far enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2023, the UK\u2019s Climate Change Committee<\/a> (CCC) published an analysis<\/a>of how jobs might change as the country strives for its legally binding net-zero target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its review of available data suggested that the gradual phase-down of high-emitting sectors, such as oil and gas production, could lead to there being 8,000-75,000 workers \u201cwhose jobs cannot continue in their current form\u201d. (It notes that the wide range is due to \u201cmuch uncertainty in these estimates\u201d.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it added that this would be outweighed by \u201cextensive job creation\u201d. It estimated that there could be between 135,000-725,000 new jobs created by the transition to net-zero, in sectors such as renewable energy generation, retrofitting and electric vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This job creation is not \u201cguaranteed\u201d and is dependent on the government implementing measures to support and upskill its workforce on the journey to net-zero, the CCC noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A report<\/a> published this week by the Renewable Energy Association, the UK\u2019s largest renewables trade body, found that jobs in renewable energy in the UK now outstrip those in oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the figures, there were 145,000 jobs in the renewable energy sector in 2025, compared with 115,000 in oil and gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to top<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MISLEADING: North Sea drilling \u2018would secure a rush of revenue into the Treasury\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One common argument in favour of more North Sea drilling is that the sector provides an important source of tax revenue for the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An editorial in the climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph<\/a> claimed that \u201ctapping\u201d new North Sea oil and gas \u201cwould not resolve the problem of high energy prices\u201d, but would \u201csecure a rush of revenue into the Treasury and provide households and businesses struggling under current circumstances with a helping hand\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an article for the Scottish Daily Mail<\/a> launching her party\u2019s \u201ccampaign to get Britain drilling\u201d, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch wrote that \u201cdrilling in the North Sea would provide a multi-billion pound boost to the exchequer\u201d. (She acknowledged, in a BBC interview<\/a>, that more drilling would not directly lower energy bills.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tax revenue argument is often made by North Sea proponents who try to position themselves as being even-handed and moderate, as illustrated in recent columns in the Guardian<\/a> and Observer<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the idea that new projects would usher in significant revenue is highly misleading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Office of Budget Responsibility<\/a> (OBR), the UK\u2019s independent fiscal watchdog, in March forecast<\/a> that total UK oil and gas revenues are expected to fall from \u00a36bn in 2024-25 to just \u00a30.1bn by 2030-31. (This is at baseline prices that do not consider the current energy crisis.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part of this decline comes from the expected end of the windfall tax<\/a>, a levy first introduced by the Conservative government in 2022 in response to soaring oil-and-gas company profits fuelled by the end of Covid restrictions and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

(Many proponents of North Sea oil and gas have repeatedly called for an end to the windfall tax, while also frequently talking up the tax benefits from oil-and-gas production.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the downgraded OBR forecast also reflects the decline of production in the basin as resources dry up, a shrinking tax base and falling prices, says Daniel Jones<\/a>, head of research, policy and legal at the campaign group Uplift. He tells Carbon Brief:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cEven the windfall receipts generated during a genuine price crisis are temporary and price-dependent. At normal prices, the basin contributes very little. The structural decline continues regardless of the spike.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

As old oil and gas assets reach the end of their lives, the companies behind them are able to access significant tax relief for decommissioning costs, \u201cfurther reducing the net contribution to the public finances\u201d, says Jones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(In some years, this tax relief has meant that far from being a source of revenue, certain oil and gas companies have been paid money<\/a> by the exchequer.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, new developments \u201ctend to be smaller and more expensive than the fields they replace\u201d, Jones says, leading to the government offering large tax deductions for exploration, drilling and construction costs from 2014 onwards. He continues:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThese deductions can wipe out any taxable profit for years, meaning the Treasury collects nothing until investment costs have been fully offset. By the time a new field generates net tax receipts, it may be well into its production life \u2013 if prices and production hold up long enough to get there at all.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

An analysis by Uplift<\/a> and NGO WWF Norway in 2025 found that the Rosebank<\/a> oil field currently seeking development consent from the government could, in a \u201cbase-case scenario\u201d, lead to \u00a3258m in net losses for the UK, due to the reasons set out above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

01\/05\/2026 by Redactie We are facing surging oil prices and rising costs for fertilisers, food and other commodities. Trump\u2019s reckless actions in Iran are pushing the global economy to the brink of an economic crisis. Many are seizing the opportunity to start drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea. This Carbon Brief paper debunks the … Lees verder<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":3695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":true,"iawp_total_views":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-untold-news-that-matters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3694"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3694\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3713,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3694\/revisions\/3713"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3695"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.scientistrebellion.nl\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}